DECEMBER 22, 2000 VOL. 26 NO. 50 | SEARCH ASIAWEEK

Badly Damaged Goods
Even if Joseph Estrada is acquitted in his impeachment trial, he may have lost too much credibility to govern
By ANTONIO LOPEZ MANILA

ALSO:
• Charging Ahead Against Estrada
In his impeachment trial, Joseph Estrada faces serious charges. If convicted of even just one, the president would fall

The testimony was devastating. The private secretary to provincial governor Luis Singson hushed day three of the impeachment trial of Philippine President Joseph Estrada with the account of how she carried a black bag bulging with 5 million pesos (about $100,000) into the heart of the MalacaNang presidential palace and handed it over to Estrada's secretary. "I saw the president talking to someone," 33-year-old Emma Lim told the Senate hearing, her matter-of-fact tone belying the fact that her evidence was the first linking Estrada to cash creamed off from the illegal lottery jueteng. After handing over the money, Lim fled the palace. "I was so afraid at that time," she said.

Estrada laughed off Lim's evidence, telling journalists the next day that she had lied. Maybe the president shouldn't laugh so soon. Lim's account of the money drop was a key part of a prosecution strategy designed to circumvent the likelihood that Estrada has enough friends in the Senate to head off a conviction. The tactic is to establish a paper trail to the president's door — and then to humiliate him with evidence about mistresses living in million-dollar homes he allegedly paid for, false bank accounts, bribes and using his office to enrich his family and friends. In the end, the thinking goes, it won't matter whether the Senate finds the president innocent of the four charges he faces — because public outrage against him will be so great he will be unable to govern effectively.

With his credibility shattered, Estrada could be unable to recruit top replacements for cabinet members who are leaving next year to run for the Senate or to seek better-paying, less hectic jobs elsewhere. He will find it difficult to whip his ruling coalition into line to pass priority economic bills such as vital measures to reform the power sector and the banking system. He may encounter rebellion by local officials in provinces and cities, thus hampering implementation of grassroots programs such as agricultural expansion. Most likely, no significant foreign investment will come into the country. And the military? "The officer corps is desperately trying to be neutral," says political scientist Alex Magno. "But everyday the possibility of a military coup increases."

Estrada's movie-star background, coupled with a platform to fight poverty, gave him an overwhelming mandate when he came to power in mid-1998. But in the 30 months since then, the embattled president has frittered away much of that goodwill. Perceptions of old-style cronyism have plagued his presidency from the start. And now talk of massive corruption has tainted Estrada himself. The president's credibility is in free fall, particularly among the elite and the middle class, and he is increasingly looking like badly damaged goods. "Civil society has withdrawn its mandate," says retired brigadier general Jose Almonte, national security adviser to former president Fidel Ramos, one of Estrada's fiercest foes. "It has already impeached him."

Certainly the cool credibility displayed by Lim did Estrada no good. She explained to the 22-man Senate tribunal and Supreme Court Chief Justice Hilario Davide how she acted as a messenger for Singson, who says he gave Estrada $8.28 million in jueteng payoffs as well as a bribe of $2.6 million. Speaking in Filipino in reply to questions in English, Lim was unflappable under cross-examination from Estrada's daunting defense counsel, Estelito Mendoza. Resting her elbows and hands on the table, she looked her inquisitor straight in the eye as he tried, without success, to discredit her story. Wasn't she afraid of being linked to illegal gambling, Mendoza asked her? "I was a bit nervous," she replied. "But, after all, the money is intended for the president. Who am I to him?" Commented newspaper columnist Teodoro Benigno: "All who looked on were convinced Emma Lim was telling the truth. You know. You just know."

There was more potentially damaging news for Estrada when prosecutors succeeded in forcing Equitable Bank to hand over records they say will prove the president held an account under the name of Jose Valhalla. The prosecution believes the account will take it straight to what could be one of the most destabilizing moments of the trial for Estrada — a glimpse into the lifestyles of his mistresses. The case against him is that the account was used to indirectly finance the purchase of a $1.72-million property in which he installed former movie star Laarni Enriquez. Among the mansion's attractions: a mini-theater, a kitchen big enough for a commercial restaurant and a swimming pool with sand brought in from the resort of Boracay, some 400 km away.

If the trial doesn't unseat the president, the economy — now the slowest-growing in Southeast Asia — might. Consumer spending is down, unemployment is up. At 14%, it is at the same level as during the depths of the Marcos-era depression. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have deferred loans worth about $510 million. Businessfolk are railing about economic mismanagement. Lydia Sarol, manager of a souvenir and garments shop in Baguio City, 250 km north of Manila, says that monthly sales are just one-fifth of what they were before Estrada took office. "Whether Estrada is guilty or not, he should resign," says Sarol. "It will be good for the economy because he is bad for business."

Estrada insists he will not go and that the trial will exonerate him. He is also buoyed by an opinion poll taken after the start of the impeachment hearings on Dec. 7. It revealed that 44% of those questioned still approved of his performance, but the figure is down from the high of over 80% he once enjoyed. Still, the president's loyalists are saying he has gotten the message that he must change. Agriculture Secretary Edgardo Angara says Estrada has promised to work harder and to do away with the cronies. But many doubt he can reform himself. "You cannot teach old dogs new tricks," says one palace insider. Finance Secretary Jose Pardo suggests that the president turn over his powers to a super-cabinet that will set policies and run the day-to-day affairs of government. "That is like asking Estrada to castrate himself," says Solita Monsod, economic planning secretary under Corazon Aquino, another Estrada foe. "Will he agree to do that?" Probably not, but it might be less painful than what could lie ahead.

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