And that's just for starters. In 2025's genetically based
pharmacology, you'll not only have your pick of the old
standbys--tranquilizers, antihistamines, painkillers and
antibiotics, all compounded to your personal specs--but you'll
see all sorts of new capsules and tablets for virtually every
ailment and condition. These will range from mood and pleasure
enhancers--legal and otherwise--for the pill poppers of the
future to new medications for diseases likely to be much more
common in an aging population, like Alzheimer's, cardiovascular
problems and cancer.
"It will be a geriatric world, at least in wealthy countries,
with at least 20% of the people 60 years or older," says Stanford
chemist Carl Djerassi, synthesizer of the birth-control pill. For
that reason, he predicts, drug companies will turn from
contraception to conception in an effort to help older women have
babies. As for aging men, they'll have at their disposal libido
and sex-performance boosters that will make Viagra seem like baby
aspirin.
Meanwhile, genetically engineered drugs will increasingly
replace the scalpel for removal of tumors or cosmetic surgery
like hair transplants. Indeed, after much hype and few results,
gene therapy is finally making major strides--although not the
way doctors thought it would. Once they hoped to cure diseases
by repairing defective genes. Now it seems a lot easier to
determine what proteins the broken genes should be making and
replace them instead. Dr. Jeffrey Isner at St. Elizabeth's
Medical Center in Boston has achieved remarkable results with a
protein called vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF2) in
restoring circulation in the legs of diabetics and, more
impressively, stimulating new vessel growth in patients with
severe heart disease. Says former Eli Lilly chairman Randall
Tobias: "The day will come when we regard all surgeries, except
[treatment of] trauma, as failures of the pharmaceutical
industry."
Unlike traditional medications, the brave new drugs will be
designed "rationally" on computer screens, using gene
information as a blueprint. VEGF2, for example, is a synthetic
gene that makes a protein that in turn stimulates new vessel
growth. In a few years, predicts William Haseltine, the biotech
industry's champion optimist and CEO of Human Genome Sciences,
based in Rockville, Md., we will have genetically based drugs
for almost every serious ailment--"things we couldn't really
work on well before, whether it's osteoporosis or Alzheimer's."
Nor will these drugs simply attack symptoms, as aspirin does.
"That's a chemical crutch," he says. In the new genomics, as
Haseltine calls it, "it's the human gene, the human protein, the
human cell--and not the chemical--that is used as the medicine."
The genomics may be new, but not the economics. When you take
your gene card to the pharmacy in 2025 for flu pills, bring a
credit card too. Made-to-fit drugs won't be cheap. Some of us may
have to make do with two aspirins and all the liquids we can
drink.
Frederic Golden, a former assistant manager of DISCOVER, is a
TIME contributor who has followed the rise of molecular biology.
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