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Yet the 20th century lived with the nuclear bomb, and there was great economic and scientific progress and much human happiness. The same can be true in the next century. Our tools for defending against new diseases are improving all the time. Vaccines are getting better. Drugs to fight bugs are advancing. And new devices are coming that will identify an infectious agent in seconds.

Our greatest weapon against the bugs will always be our mind. Dr. Jeffrey Koplan, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, predicts that in the end, the fight will come down to the same old sleuthing methods that disease hunters have always used to find bugs and stop them. "Shoe-leather epidemiology" is what Koplan calls it. "You wear out your shoes investigating an outbreak," he says. "You go around identifying the source of the disease and figuring out how it's being spread, and then you remove the source. Even if it's Vibram-soled epidemiology, we'll do it."

No matter how great our technology, we'll still have to go mano a mano with the microbes. We may not completely win the 21st century bug hunt, but I am confident that we won't lose it.

Richard Preston, best-selling author of The Hot Zone and The Cobra Event, is working on a book about microscopic life forms.



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