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Predicting the future is easy; doing it accurately is a whole
different matter. But current trends suggest that the most
dramatic changes in medical care in the next 20 or 30 years will
spring from a growing reliance on "smart" technology. Computer
chips will become ever faster, smaller and less expensive.
Medical instruments and sensors will continue to shrink. (One
that already has is the formerly big, lumbering machine needed
for radiation treatment; today mobile electron accelerators are
portable enough to be used during some cancer operations,
reducing the number of healthy cells that are damaged.)
We are witnessing the early days of a wired revolution in medicine. The Web has shattered the physician's tightly held monopoly on information. Specialists are starting to provide consultations via the Internet. Some doctors are experimenting with computer programs that monitor how often an asthmatic refills a prescription, alerting them when the pattern indicates that stronger medicines are needed to head off a more serious attack. All these automated checkups would be a prescription for information gridlock if we humans tried to track it all. But it is likely that we will leave the bulk of data collection and processing to increasingly sophisticated computer programs. So will robots be taking over for doctors? Probably not. Computers that today can describe every disease known to man still can't navigate a hospital corridor. And even artificial intelligence, or AI, diagnosis has its limitations. You're probably going to want a flesh-and-blood practitioner--not just a computer--to diagnose your aches and pains for at least another decade or two. Still, computer technology can dramatically extend the physician's ability to treat diseases, and nowhere is this more apparent than in the operating room. Already, information from CAT scans is routinely used to reproduce detailed views of human anatomy in three dimensions. Soon engineers will perfect the tools that allow surgeons to simulate an operation realistically--down to the resistance of skin against scalpel. But technology will never be a cure-all. Accidents and plagues won't disappear. The AIDS epidemic is so entrenched in Africa and parts of Asia that it could overshadow much of the 21st century. Nor will everyone be able to afford the latest treatments for cancer or Alzheimer's disease. For millions of people alive today, though, the ability to monitor their health more closely and start treatments at the earliest stages of disease means that many may live long enough to enjoy the blessings of the 22nd century. TIME senior writer and health columnist Christine Gorman built her first robot out of Legos when she was 10 years old
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